The economy looks similar to the end of 2009 and the beginning of 2010. During the end of 2009 and the beginning of 2010, inventory growth led the recovery. The same pattern may be developing in 2012. If this is the case then the first several months of the year will be strong for the stock market, but then may slow toward the middle of the year.
12 comments:
I think the economy will look the same in 2012 as it did in 2010 and 2011. History repeats itself over and over again. If something happens to the economy like a strong first couple of months and then tanks I would be concerned. Since 2010 and 2011 were very similar I would be very scared about the economy in 2012.
I found it interesting to see the trends in the economy from 2010 and 2011. I think that the pattern will continue into 2012 due to the known trend patterns that occur in the economy. For example, depressions tend to happen in patterns, which inables economists to predict what tue economy for future years
Looking at the different trends from the Components of GDP table I did not find it that shocking that the trends in the economy were not that varied in recent years. From looking at the different components of the chart I think that the trends in past years will continue to look similar to economic events in 2012.
I think this provides a good idea of what's to come because if the economic trends are that similar to 2009-10 it's very likely that the economy will follow the same path. I would be curious to see if economy will do the same thing it did in 2009-10 and if economists will recommend anything different from 2009-10 to help the economy.
A big difference between 2012 and the other years is that the US federal reserve has recently said that interest rates will stay low (0% fed funds) until late 2014. This should encourage risk taking and help the stock market.
Economic recovery and a strong stock market are never bad, but after analyzing the chart i noticed that exports, one of the most important components according to the chart, is continuing to decrease. I would be interested to see if this will have a major effect on the trends predicted for 2012.
It makes sense for our economy in 2012 to be following the same patterns of the past two years. Our economy is on a long road to recovery and nothing major is going to happen over night. Our economy will continue to follow the past trends while slowly but surly recovering.
I wonder how this will affect home prices and new job creation. And if there will be a faster or slower recovery time than the last.
It will certainly be interesting how the upcoming election will affect the economy, hopefully for the better
I would agree that history repeats itself but as a economic status paul i think that history with the economy will always change rapidly and euexspectedly.
My question is how facebook will affect the economy now that it is publicly traded.
I would disagree with the statement that there will be significant growth in the market in 2012. It looked like that at the beginning of the year but the situation in Europe got worse and is now threatening to bring down the whole global market and there is now a possibility of a repeat of the meltdown in 2007/2008.
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