Unemployment rate uncovered

Jobs report for 10-5-12

The 873,000 new jobs for September was overstated due to a seasonal adjustment the government makes every year in September. Historically 368,000 college students go back to school and leave the labor market in September, and so the government adds in 368 k in September to account for this seasonal adjustment. Unfortunately, the students are not leaving in September but in August. Therefore, the adjustment was applied to the wrong month.


"The Bureau of Labor Statistics adjusts its raw survey data to correct for seasonal patterns, and since a decline in employment is expected for those 20 to 24, the economists at the bureau increased the level of employment for this group in the seasonally adjusted numbers. "Ny times


.................Labor force. Employed. Ue rate


Gov number 155063..... 142974 .... 7.7961
Adj college. - -368 k... ..-368k. .... 7.8197
Adj dis. - --- -802 k.... -802 k .... 7.8554
Increase in pt. -600k. .... -600k. .... 7.8862